Institutional mechanisms for transboundary water resource management and their impact on agricultural sustainability in Kyrgyzstan in the context of climate change

The Kyrgyz Republic occupies a strategic position in the hydrological system of Central Asia as an upstream state controlling the formation of the flow of the region’s largest transboundary rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya. Climate change, which increases interannual variability in river flow, poses critical challenges to the sustainability of the region’s agricultural sector and the implementation of regional water management policies in Central Asia. The structural conflict between the energy interests of the upper reaches (water storage in winter for hydroelectric power stations) and the agricultural needs of the lower reaches (maximum water supply in summer for irrigation) threatens the region’s food security. The aim of the study was to analyse institutional mechanisms for transboundary water management and their adaptive potential to ensure agricultural sustainability. Critical deficiencies in the current institutional system have been identified; the analysis showed that the Interstate Water Management Coordination Commission (IWCCC) has limited regulatory powers, and the commission’s decisions are advisory in nature. Basin organisations do not have mechanisms to enforce water consumption limits. In conditions of low water availability, the effectiveness of the system is sharply reduced, and there is no formal system of sanctions for violations of water distribution agreements. The study examined ways to harmonise Kyrgyzstan’s national water policy with regional initiatives on transboundary water management, as well as the possibilities for adapting existing contractual mechanisms to climate risks and creating a system for monitoring the implementation of intergovernmental obligations. A model of adaptive water resource management was proposed, and a three-level system was developed: (1) seasonal redistribution of flows through reservoir storage; (2) a flexible quota mechanism that takes climate forecasts into account; (3) a system of economic incentives for water conservation in the agricultural sector. The results of the study fill a gap in understanding the link between the institutional architecture of water management and agricultural vulnerability and allow for the formulation of scientifically sound recommendations for the creation of a more sustainable and institutionally effective system of transboundary water management, contributing to the minimisation of conflict potential and stimulating integrated regional development in Central Asia