Economic and correlation analysis of perennial crop yields in the Chüy Region of the Kyrgyz Republic in the context of global climate change

Analysis of the effectiveness of agricultural resource use is becoming particularly important in the context of current climate and economic transformations. The study addressed the correlation between the indicators of orchard area, yield and gross harvest of fruit crops in the Chüy Region of the Kyrgyz Republic for the period 2022-2024. The study aimed to establish statistical correlations between the primary indicators of production and economic performance to support decisions aimed at enhancing the efficiency of the region's agricultural sector. The study used official statistical data, the calculation of Pearson's coefficients to identify linear dependencies and visual methods of presenting data. The analysis covered data for seed and stone fruit crops (apple, pear, plum, cherry, sweet cherry, apricot, peach), including area, gross harvest, yield, revenue, costs, profit and efficiency. The analysis showed a steady increase in yields and gross volume with a decrease in planted areas, indicating the introduction of a more intensive model in horticulture. High positive correlations were found between area and gross harvest (r > 0.7) and between gross harvest and yield (r > 0.8). A direct correlation between revenues and profits was also identified, which confirmed the importance of financial resource management. At the same time, the level of efficiency demonstrated a weaker dependence, indicating the multifactorial nature of its formation. The data obtained can be used to create regional strategies aimed at increasing the economic return on perennial fruit crops, with an emphasis on increasing yields, optimising costs and applying modern agricultural technologies. The findings highlighted the importance of integrating statistical methods of analysis into agricultural practice, which not only improved the accuracy of assessment of the current state of production but also created forecast models for effective resource management. Thus, the study demonstrated that the introduction of an integrated approach, including agrotechnical, economic and analytical components, is a key condition for increasing the sustainability and competitiveness of horticulture in the Chüy Region and similar agro-climatic zones