STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMICS AND FORECASTING OF THE FERTILITY IN THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA

Nina Porchesko-Gozun; Daniil Porchesko-Gozun; Tatyana Dudoglo

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMICS AND FORECASTING OF THE FERTILITY IN THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA

N Nina Porchesko-Gozun D Daniil Porchesko-Gozun T Tatyana Dudoglo

Received 09.03.2022

Revised 30.05.2022

Published 02.07.2022

Abstract

The article describes the methodology for analyzing the dynamics and forecasting the total fertility rate in the Republic of Moldova. With the help of modern statistical tools, the structure of the time series of the analyzed indicator was revealed - the cyclic and trend components were identified, the modeling of a one-dimensional time series was carried out, taking into account the selected cycles and volatility. A comparative analysis of the trends in the dynamics and fluctuations of the total fertility rate for selected cycles is given. The factors were identified and their influence on the dynamics of the total fertility rate in the beginning of the ascending phase of the cycle (2008–2020) was assessed. A forecast for a one-dimensional time series has been developed

Keywords

Total fertility rate Republic of Moldova dynamics forecast trend

Suggested citation

Porchesko-Gozun, N., Porchesko-Gozun, D., & Dudoglo, T. (2022). STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMICS AND FORECASTING OF THE FERTILITY IN THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA. Bulletin of the Kyrgyz National Agrarian University, 20(2), 58-65.

References

[1] Navdaeva, S.N., & Dudoglo, T.D. (2020). Economic and statistical analysis of the performance indicators of agricultural enterprises: Textbook. Nizhny Novgorod: FGBOU VO Nizhny Novgorod State Agricultural Academy.

[2] Parmakli, D.M., & Dudoglo, T.D. (2017). Graphical method in statistics (teaching aid). Comrat: Comrat State University, Research Center "Progress".